Greece: Moderate optimism pending investment grade from rating agencies

Many banks and reputable news agencies expect the rating agencies to upgrade the Greek economy to investment grade in 2023. The first evaluation is expected on October 20 by S&P and if it is positive, it will give a big boost to the economy. At the same time, the news about tourism is very encouraging, with the first figures showing another record year in terms of number of visitors, but mainly in terms of revenue. These two positive figures for the economy also give an optimistic forecast for growth in 2023 of 2.5% and above.

Τhe positive forecasts and assessments require 3 elements: fiscal discipline, structural reforms and large public and private investments. The Greek government is working for the positive evaluation of the economy mentioned above with the aim of increasing the flow of money to Greece and mainly the increase of investors.  

The positive climate that prevails as mentioned above does not negate the existence of obstacles. Society and especially the economically weaker are faced with inflation which increases the prices of fuel, energy and food. The government has announced some measures in the form of subsidies that will take effect from the autumn and mainly concern the reduction of the cost of electricity bills and the subsidization of supermarket purchases. Of course, these measures are a first aid and the taking of new ones should be re-evaluated if the conditions require it.

In the field of tourism, the news is now very positive for 2023 as mentioned, although Greece also faced one of the most difficult summers with heatwaves and fires. The first figures show an increase in bookings as well as air flights by 10%. Despite the heavy price paid by the country with fires burning more land than ever before and the heat being the worst in decades, tourism was up for another year. Greece maintains a high level of tourism and hospitality services and for this reason it has become a destination not only for large travel agencies but also for individual travelers. In order to keep tourism at a high level but also to protect the environment, the government is called upon to take measures on climate change. It is a problem that will concern the country immediately with the restoration of the damages in the areas affected by the fires, but also in the future with the need to take preventive measures.

The third quarter of 2023 will close positively for the country in the economic sector, but attention is required in terms of continuity mainly in two main points: 1) Finding fiscal space to take measures to support society without disrupting fiscal discipline 2) Implementing projects and taking measures to address climate change.

 

Reference/ citation

https://www.ot.gr/

https://www.statistics.gr/

https://www.huffingtonpost.gr/

https://www.bbc.com/

https://www.in.gr/

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